The AIADMK's staying power is not in question, but it has to regain the winning streak. That will require its leaders and leadership to re-wire themselves, to be able to re-think situations in ways different from what they had been accustomed to, suggests Sathiya Moorthy.
From Chief Minister EK Palaniswami to Seeman to TTV Dhinakaran to elder brother M K Azhagiri, everyone's favourite target these days seems to the DMK chief Stalin, which is good news in an election year, but that doesn't mean he is going to sweep the polls, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
On the face of it, the first round has gone to Edappadi K Palaniswami. Not only has he been named chief ministerial candidate, that too by his one-time bete noire Panneerselvam, he also gets one member more in the steering committee than OPS. He can now hope to wean away one or more members of the OPS team in the steering committee just as he had done with other leaders in the latter's camp, post-reunification. That was also OPS's concern, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Except for the Akali Dal and Shiv Sena, the BJP has not found any permanent friends.' 'This is because most parties are genuinely concerned about what Hindutva politics does to Indian society,' argues Aakar Patel.
The deadlock over finalising alliances has had a deleterious effect on the candidates of every party. The delay in alliance conclusion has also sent out confusing signals to the grass-roots who are unsure who will be their party candidate, or which party within an alliance will be allotted a particular constituency, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Sources close to both actors acknowledged the two being invited to Modi's swearing-in scheduled on Thursday, but did not divulge if the veterans would participate.
With the BJP continuing to be the constant combatant, centrifugal pressures will rise. Fractured relations between the Centre and the states as between BJP and non-BJP ruled states is a sizeable risk owing ahead, warns Shekhar Gupta.
2014 will be a watershed election. Much is at stake and much needs to be changed. Women need their voice to be heard and they need representation with real power, says Sunanda Vashist.
With the DMK formalising its alliance with the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League, and the AIADMK not allowing the BJP anywhere near it, if the DMDK too goes with the DMK then the only option left for the BJP is to explore going with the PMK. In that case it has to endorse Dr Ramadoss as its chief minister candidate, says R Ramasubramanian.
'It may take the AIADMK much more convincing than already, not only to try and bring around even the one-time Muslim voters of the party. 'More importantly, the party leadership may find it even more difficult to convince traditional party voters and cadres, who had admired Jaya's nonchalance to the party and leader ruling the Centre,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Hitting out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the issue of tax cuts on petroleum products, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin on Thursday said people were aware of the fact behind the issue and pointed out at his government effecting a Rs 3 a litre cut on petrol earlier.
This time round, even 'petrol coupons' were reportedly distributed for those attending campaign rallies, especially those addressed by top leaders, cutting across party lines. If this owed to the rising cost of petrol and diesel -- which is a poll issue this time -- there were the customary coupons for 'quarter' (liquor bottle size) and non-vegetarian biryani. Some media reports claimed that some of these 'crowds' attended more than one political rally on the same day in the last week, and at times for rival political parties in adjoining constituencies or districts, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
For the first time since 1985, Tamil Nadu has voted in favour of an incumbent party which has been a shock to those in Anna Arivalayam -- the office of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Chennai.
The Congress on Friday said it was open to post-poll alliances, even though it exuded confidence of emerging victorious in all five states, including Uttar Pradesh in alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
The ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam on Tuesday said that party supremo and Chief Minister Jayalalithaa is a "qualified" leader to lead the country after the next Lok Sabha polls and vowed to work towards this goal by securing all 40 seats in the state.
Chowdhury said the family faces threat to life and the cover by the elite security organisation should not have been withdrawn.
The Left rewrote history in Kerala on Sunday by becoming the first government to get a second term in four decades but its fortunes fell to a historic low in West Bengal where it failed to bag even one seat, resulting in its complete decimation in a state it once ruled for over three decades.
The BJP and its allies now rule over 70 per cent of the country's population, marking an unprecedented saffron footprint.
Anything can happen, says a young Congress leader.
'Tamil Nadu will never allow the Centre's three-language policy'
With the presidential elections over, the time has come for Prime Minister Modi to show Tamil Nadu that the state's interests are safe under him, says R Rajagopalan.
"This whole incident of Waze's activities and controversies thereafter taught a lesson to the MVA government. It was good in a way that it happened and taught us some lessons," the Sena's chief spokesperson said.
'...it gets a survey report that they are going to lose elections.' 'The fear of losing elections will make them immediately conduct a caste census.'
There is speculation that the Congress may bring Priyanka Gandhi, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Randeep Surjewala and RPN Singh, among others, to the upper house.
In democratic India, a citizen can be a patriot and at the same time be critical of the government, unlike China which promulgated a national security law in Hong Kong prescribing patriotism to contest elections, observes Rup Narayan Das.
Though the 2019 alliance talks, if any, are a long way off, CM Jaya's current state of health and her long hospitalisation maybe a facilitating factor for the AIADMK to consider any BJP initiative favourably at the time, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Congress president addressing women students at the Stella Maris College said that the law must apply to everybody and not be applied selectively.
'Of equal importance was the AIADMK's precarious assembly membership, what with 11 of its MLAs including deputy chief minister OPS facing court cases for disqualification and by-elections due in another 21. To shore up the party's numbers for anticipated eventuality on the 11-MLAs' front, the AIADMK leadership in general and chief minister EPS in particular, were even more focussed on assembly seats than LS seats, just now,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.
While Rahul Gandhi led Congress has a pan Indian presence, Naidu described regional leaders, including himself, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Stalin and Deve Gowda as strong leaders in their respective states, who are coming together against the BJP.
Surjewala made the case for state-specific alliances while arguing for a larger coalition with like-minded parties in 'national interest'.
The presidential election is due in July and the poll to the post of the vice president is scheduled for August.
With India under pressure from Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu to support a United States-sponsored resolution in the United Nations Human Rights Commission against Sri Lanka for alleged war crimes, United Progressive Alliance's key constituent Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam on Saturday announced the convening of its high-level committee on March 20 to discuss the issue. Party chief M Karunanidhi will chair the meeting on Tuesday morning at its headquarters in Chennai.
The ruling All India Anna DMK bagged 37 out of the 39 seats in the state, with the Bharatiya Janata Party winning one seat and its alliance partner the Pattali Makkal Katchi winning one.
The deaths of Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi within months of each other neutralises any sympathy factor their parties may hope to gain from. What's more, by removing charismatic leaders from the fray, it also levels the field for others, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Come May 16, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will have more seats from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh than any formation mustered by the Congress, notes T V R Shenoy.
Having altered the political landscape of Tamil Nadu by firming up a pre-poll alliance with five parties of the state for the first time, the Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday welcomed the tacit support of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief M Karunanidhi's son M K Alagiri, saying it will help in formation of NDA government at the Centre.
In the absence of the over-arching 'Jaya charisma', EPS has to convince the AIADMK's traditional constituencies, including those in his western districts, that his leadership would stand up against the BJP-led Centre even in a post-poll scenario, a la Jayalalithaa, and would not yield as much as party founder MGR had done, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Brushing aside opposition from the Dravida Munetra Kazhagam and other parties in Tamil Nadu, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday met Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa but did not give him any assurance on which way India will vote on a the United Nations Human Rights Council resolution for an independent international probe into rights abuses during the war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.
Expressing 'surprise' over India supporting a 'weak' and 'diluted' United States resolution against Sri Lanka at the United Nations Human Rights Council, former United Progressive Alliance ally Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam on Thursday said New Delhi had by its action "totally disappointed" the entire Tamil diaspora.
